极限时间法与临震预报  

Limited time method and impending earthquake prediction

作　　者：刘正荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650041

出　　处：《地震》2005年第1期41-50,共10页Earthquake

摘　　要：研究了每2次地震之间的时间间隔,并指出在更大的地震发生前h′异常,且有一个极限时间存在,通常不会超过极限时间而发震。若h′值连续异常,h′虽小但大于1;则是短期异常的显示;若出现单次或多次的高h′值异常。如:h′>4甚至h′>9,且本地或附近伴有较大(例如M≥4)地震出现时,一般都是本地地震的临震异常。用4次前震作了检验,结果是满意的。而且还研究了信息与干扰的问题。This paper studies the interval between two earthquakes, and points out that there exists an anomaly of h' that has a limited time before a large earthquake. Usually, the earthquake occurs within the limited time. If the anomaly of h' appears continuously, it is small but bigger than 1, that is a short-term anomaly. If one or more h' anomaly appears, for example h'>4, even h'>9 and with bigger earthquakes (M≥4) nearby, it is visually an impending anomaly of local earthquake. Four earthquakes are used to examine the study and the result is satisfied. Finally, the information and disturbance are also studied.

关 键 词：极限时间法 临震预报 地震 短期异常 临震异常 前震 干扰 检验 时间间隔 显示 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]