三峡水库石榴树包滑坡灾害预警分析  

Hazard analyzing and predicting on Shiliushubao landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir

作　　者：孟永东[1] 田斌[2] 郭其达[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学土木水电学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2004年第12期23-27,共5页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

摘　　要：滑坡预报是滑坡研究中尚未很好解决的课题. 对于三峡水库石榴树包滑坡,使用灰色理论模型作为主要中、长期预测模型,以变形速率为主要判据进行状态预测. 对于临滑阶段则使用Verhulst理论模型,并以最大位移为判据对滑坡破坏时间进行预测. 另外通过对滑坡体引起的三峡库区各主要港口的涌浪进行预测和滑坡灾害评价,为防灾减灾对策的制订提供科学的依据.To predict the time of landslide is the problem which is still unsolved in landslide research. In Shiliushubao landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir,we use grey theory model as being main, long-term forecast model, regard speed out of shape as the main criterion and predict the state. Use Verhulst theory model in facing slippery stage, and regard greatest displacement as the criterion and predict the destroy time of landslide. In addition, through predicting the height of wave, due to Shiliushubao landslide mass, at every main port of reservoir area of the Three Gorges, and appraising the calamity, offer the scientific basis for formulation of the disaster prevention and reduction countermeasure.

关 键 词：滑坡 预警 灾害 灰色理论 Verhulst理论 

分 类 号：TV3[水利工程—水工结构工程]