长武塬区六十年一遇特大旱情分析与冬小麦产量预测  

Situation Analysis of Serious Dry which Occurs Once in Sixty Years and Yield Forecast of Winter Wheat in Changwu Plateau

作　　者：董大学[1] 钟良平[1] 李玉山[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部西北水土保持研究所,陕西杨陵712100

出　　处：《水土保持通报》1993年第5期71-77,共7页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

摘　　要：通过对长武塬区气象资料的分析,认为1991年在长武塬区及其相似类型区所发生的干旱为六十年一遇的特大干旱。笔者运用“底墒—生育期降雨—产量反应型”对该区域不同立地条件下的翌年冬小麦产量进行预测,结果表明:来年小麦亩产上限为150kg,下限为100kg,较高产年减少55%～70%。By analysed the climate data in Chang-wu plateau, we found that 1991 is the most serious dry year in near sixtyyears,we also made a yield forecast of winter wheat in the different earth condition with soil moisture-precipitation ingrowth period yield model, the conclusion is: the highest yield of winter wheat is 150kg/mu, the lowest yield is100kg/mu,The yield will reduce 55%～70% next year than the year of high yield.

关 键 词：旱情分析 产量预测 小麦 

分 类 号：S512.101[农业科学—作物学]