元素失效相依时系统失效概率的计算  

Calculation of system failure probability with dependent failure elements

作　　者：吴穹[1] 田宏[1] 付燕平[1] 陈宝智[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳航空工业学院,辽宁沈阳110034 [2]东北大学资源土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110008

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2004年第12期1933-1935,共3页Systems Engineering and Electronics

摘　　要：针对实际工程系统中元素失效的相依性,提出了元素失效的高阶关联度的定义,基于该定义并利用区间概率理论修改了传统的失效概率计算公式。复杂系统中元素失效的高阶关联度可以通过系统的层次结构和FMEA来确定。当系统中元素失效间存在相依时,关联度的定义和使用不仅使系统失效概率的计算变得容易,而且降低了计算结果的不确定性。实例计算验证了这种方法的正确性。In order to calculate the failure probability of an engineering system with dependent failure elements in real world, the definition of high-order dependence is developed. Based on this definition and the interval probability theory, the traditional failure probability formula of inclusive or exclusive principles is reveised. High-order dependence in complex sysems can be determinded by hierarchical analysis and FMEA methods. In the system with dependent failure elements, the degrees of dependence can not only make it easy to calculate the failure probability, but also reduce the uncertainty of failure probability. The correctness of this method is proved by a few simple examples.

关 键 词：应用统计数学 系统可靠性 区间概率 失效相依 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]