复杂地形下冰雹预报的数值试验研究  

A numerical experiment of hail forecast over a complicated terrain

作　　者：周颖[1] 文继芬[2] 黄浩隽[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院地球环境科学系,四川成都610041 [2]贵州省人工影响天气办公室,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《成都信息工程学院学报》2004年第4期552-557,共6页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：贵州省科委 1 998年地方行业攻关项目

摘　　要：充分考虑贵州低纬、高原山区特色,首先模拟由于下垫面的热力和动力不均匀造成的强对流云的初始扰动。在此初始扰动的基础上,用完全弹性三维冰雹云数值模式,模拟雹云的发生发展过程,对冰雹进行数值预报研究。通过现场试验和个例分析,发现模式能反映雹云的发生、发展等变化规律,并能对冰雹天气作预报,预报概括率为81%。A three-dimensional dynamical numerical model over the complicated terrain is designed to simulate the initial disturbance resulting from the thermodynamic and dynamic non-uniformity of the underlying surface. On the basis of the initial disturbance a numerical model of completely elastic three-dimensional hail cloud is used to forecast the hail weather. For testing and verifying the numerical method the data in 1997 and 1998 are used to calculate the failure rate. It is shown that the model reflects the production and development of the hail cloud and the accuracy of the forecast reaches 81%.

关 键 词：复杂地形 初始扰动 冰雹 数值预报 

分 类 号：P412.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]