1948～2001年全球陆地12～2月降水旱涝长期变化  

SECULAR VARIATION OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANGE OF FLOOD /DROUGHT OF GLOBA LAND IN DEC.-FEB. DURING 1948-2001

作　　者：高鸿[1] 施能[1] 白彬人[1] 王颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京气象学院大气科学系,南京210044

出　　处：《气象科学》2004年第4期387-397,共11页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金 (40 2 75 0 2 8)资助

摘　　要：本文利用 194 8～ 2 0 0 1全球陆地月降水资料 (PREC/L) ,研究了全球、北、南半球及欧亚、非洲、澳洲、北美、南美和南极大陆 6个大尺度区域 12～ 2月的降水趋势变化及旱涝气候变化。结果表明 :全球、南、北半球的 12～ 2月的陆面降水有明显的年代际变化 ,全球 12～ 2月降水量从 1975年开始有明显的下降趋势 ,回归系数约为 - 0 .0 17mm/a。北半球有明显的降水减少 ,约为 - 0 .0 2 8mm/a ,南半球 12～ 2月降水表现为极微弱的下降趋势 ,且在统计上是不显著的。划分出了全球、南北半球、全球 6个大尺度区域 12～ 2月旱涝年 ,指出全球及北、南半球12～ 2月的旱涝有明显的年代际变化。 70年代中期以前是全球洪涝多发期 ,80年代到 90年代为全球干旱多发期。北半球旱涝特征与全球特征相近 ,南、北半球12～ 2月的旱涝没有明显的联系。 12～ 2月大尺度区域中 :欧亚大陆、北美洲、南极大陆旱涝年的分布有明显的年代际特征 ,并指出全球大部分地区的旱涝年降水量有显著的差异。 6个大尺度区域 12～ 2月的降水相关关系中 ,欧亚大陆和非洲大陆的相关系数最高 ,为 - 0 .35 ,北美大陆与欧亚大陆 ,南美洲和澳洲的 12～ 2月降水也有较高的相关关系。Based on global land monthly precipitation dataset PREC/L during the period of 1948-2001, the flood/drought and the secular trend variation of precipitation of global, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ,the Southern Hemisphere(SH), Eurasia, Africa, Australia, North America, South America and Antarctica in December-February (DJF) are investigated. The results indicate that the precipitation of global, NH and SH experienced decadal change: a minus-trend from 1974s global precipitation for DJF, regression coefficient is -0.017 mm/a. The precipitation of Northern Hemisphere has a significant negative trend, lapse rate of precipitation during DJF is -0.028 mm/a .for the Southern Hemisphere , but it hasn't pass the statistical significance .The flood/drought years are picked out in 1948-2001 for DJF over global, Northern and Southern Hemisphere, six large-scale areas, the results point out there is significant decadal change in the flood/drought years of global ,NH and SH in DJF,during 1940s-1970s global flood in DJF occurred frequently and from 1970s-1990s global drought in DJF occurred frequently. The flood/drought characteristics of Northern Hemisphere are agreed with ones of the global. There is no obvious correlation between the Northern and Southern Hemispheric flood/drought in DJF. Eurasia, North America, Antarctica have significant interdecadal change of the flood/drought during DJF. Global has a significant contrast of rainfall between flood/drought years. The correlations among six large-scale areas precipitation are analysed. Study shows that the relationships of precipitation may exist among the Eurasia and Africa (The correlation coefficients is -0.35), North America and Eurasia , South America and and Australia.

关 键 词：全球陆地降水 12—2月旱涝 气候变化 大尺度区域 年代际变化 

分 类 号：P461.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]