基于计量模型的新疆县域经济差异预警分析  

An early-warning analysis of the difference of county-level economy in Xinjiang on the basis of an econometric model

作　　者：韩延玲[1] 高志刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经学院统计与信息系 [2]新疆财经学院经济学系

出　　处：《新疆社会科学》2005年第1期35-39,共5页Social Sciences in Xinjiang

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目<新疆区域经济差异与预警系统研究>(70063005)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：文章采用经济预警的基本原理,对新疆县域经济绝对差异和相对差异警情状况进行了分析 和预报。通过建立计量经济模型对新疆县域经济差异的警戒水平进行了测算,表明新疆县域经济绝对差异 从1994年开始,就超过了警戒水平。同时借鉴国内外居民收入相对差异警戒线的划定,初步对以基尼系数 反映的县域经济相对差异的警限、警情、警度进行了界定,并据此对新疆目前的县域经济相对差异的警情 状态进行了判定和预报,得出了一些基本的结论和政策启示。Adopting the basic principles of economical early-warning theories, the authors analyze and predict the warning status of the absolute and relative differences of county-level economy in Xinjiang. They estimate the warning level of the difference of county-level economy in Xinjiang by setting up an econometric model and show that the absolute difference of county-level economy in Xinjiang has exceeded the warning level since 1994. The authors, borrowing ideas from the definition of the warning limits of the relative difference of household income at home and abroad, give their initial definitions of the warning limits, warning status, warning degree of the relative difference of the county-level economy in Xinjiang reflected with Gini coefficient, hence they make their judgment and prediction of the warning status of the relative difference of county-level economy in Xinjiang at present and draw some basic conclusions and inspirations for policy-making.

关 键 词：县域经济差异 预警计量模型 新疆 

分 类 号：F127.45[经济管理—世界经济]