齐齐哈尔市气温变化小波分析  

Wavelet Analysis of Temperature Variations in Qiqihar

作　　者：娄德君[1] 孙卫国[1] 李治民 

机构地区：[1]南京气象学院,南京210044 [2]黑龙江省齐齐哈尔市气象局,齐齐哈尔161006

出　　处：《气象科技》2004年第6期475-478,共4页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：南京气象学院科研基金项目 (992 2 )"气候灾害的统计动力学诊断与预测研究"资助

摘　　要：利用 190 9年 1月至 2 0 0 2年 12月逐月平均气温距平资料和Morlet小波变换方法 ,对齐齐哈尔市气温变化的年际、年代际周期以及突变特征进行了分析。得出近百年来齐齐哈尔市气温变化具有准 2、4、4～ 6、8年左右的年际尺度和 4 0～ 6 0年的年代际尺度周期变化 ,并存在突变特征 ,齐齐哈尔市气温变化是不同尺度周期振荡综合作用的结果。The inter-annual and inter-decadal periodic change and abrupt change characteristics of Qiqihar's temperature variation were analyzed by means of the Morlet wavelet transforming method and the month-to-month mean temperature anomaly data from 1991 to 2002, and the main regularities of temperature variation were discussed. It is found that there were inter-annual periodic variations of quasi-biennial, 4 to 6 years, and 8 years, and inter-decadal periodic variations of 40 to 60 years, as well as abrupt changes, in Qiqihar in recent 100 years; the temperature variation in Qiqihar was the composite result of multi-scale periodic fluctuations. The conclusions can be used as references in short-term climate forecasting in Qiqihar.

关 键 词：气温变化 年代际 突变特征 短期气候预测 月平均气温 周期变化 小波分析 齐齐哈尔市 左右 并存 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P631.81