浅基础可靠性设计中的贝叶斯统计方法及应用  

Bayes statistical method and its application in reliability design of shallow foundation

作　　者：宁宝宽[1] 王维纲[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学建筑工程学院,沈阳110023 [2]东北大学,沈阳110006

出　　处：《沈阳工业大学学报》2005年第1期103-106,共4页Journal of Shenyang University of Technology

摘　　要：在现场土工试验数据比较少的情况下,应用经验分布求得某工程指标的概率分布是一种可行的方法.应用贝叶斯统计基本原理,并对其进行了推广.应用此方法对沈阳地区的粉质黏土试验指标进行了统计检验,并推导出其概率分布模型和模型参数.对沈阳市区某工程,应用修正后的概率分布模型和模型参数进行了浅基础可靠性设计,并与标准正态分布的计算结果进行了对比分析,结果表明该方法应用于地基基础可靠性设计是可行的.It is a feasible method to obtain the probability distribution of some engineering index through empirical method in the case of lacking experimental data.A new method of probability analysis was proposed on the basis of Bayes theorem.A β-probability distribution model of silt clay in Shenyang was established.Also a statistic examination was conducted.In order to obtain perfect index of reliability,further research on the parameters of the model was also carried out.A new method of statistics was adopted to revise the former results.At last,an example was calculated.Comparisons were made between results obtained here and those found in references.The result indicates that the method presented here is feasible.

关 键 词：贝叶斯统计 粉质黏土 强度指标 β分布 地基 可靠性设计 

分 类 号：TU411[建筑科学—岩土工程]