一个全球海气耦合模式跨季度汛期预测能力的初步检验和评估  

PRIMARY VERIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT ON THE EXTRA-SEASONALLY PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC-OCEANIC COUPLED MODEL IN RAINING SEASON

作　　者：李清泉[1] 丁一汇[1] 张培群[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象学报》2004年第6期740-751,共12页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家科技部"九五"加强课题 (96-90 8-0 6-3 );国家自然科学基金重点项目 (4 0 2 3 10 14 );中国气象局国家气象中心课题(ZK2 0 0 2C -12 )

摘　　要：文中利用一个全球大气 海洋耦合模式 ,对中国汛期气候异常进行了 1991～ 2 0 0 1年共 11a的跨季度回报试验和检验研究。采用一套多指标的评估方法 ,对该模式的预报性能进行系统的定量评估。结果表明 ,该模式对中国汛期降水和温度及夏季北半球大尺度环流场等都有一定的跨季度预报能力。模式对中国不同区域夏季降水的预测能力有所不同。总的来说 ,模式对中国东部和西部的降水趋势回报较好 ,模式预报好于气候预报和持续性预报。从相关系数指标来看 ,模式跨季度预测夏季温度的技巧在中国西部比中国东部高。In the present paper, extra-seasonal hindcast experiments and verifications of climate anomalies in China during the raining seasons of 1991-2001 (totally 11 years) were conducted based on a global atmospheric-oceanic coupled model. A set of indexes characterizing different predictive skills was utilized to assess systematically and quantitatively the predictive performance of the model. The model verification has indicated that the model has certain capability in predicting seasonally rainfall and temperature over China as well as the large-scale circulation in the North Hemisphere in summer time. The model prediction is better than climatological prediction and persistence prediction. The model performance of summer rainfall prediction varies in different regions of China. In general, the prediction of rainfall tendency in both East China and West China are reasonable. In view of anomaly correlation coefficient,the model skill in seasonal prediction of the summer temperature are relatively higher in West China than in East China.

关 键 词：海-气耦合模式 中国东部 汛期 大尺度环流 夏季降水 降水趋势 气候预报 温度 利用 试验 

分 类 号：P732.6[天文地球—海洋科学] P426