出口贸易对中国经济增长影响的再思考  

Rethinking the Impact of Export Trade on China's Economic Growth

作　　者：吕惠娟[1] 许小平[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2005年第2期136-142,共7页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：本文分别从平稳的实际变量系统和非平稳的名义变量系统两个角度来考察出口贸易对中国经济增长的影响。对于前者,利用传统的OLS回归方法和Granger因果检验进行分析;对于后者,则利用协整理论进行研究。实证结果表明,尽管中国经济属于多因素共同驱动的复合型增长而并非出口导向型增长,但出口贸易仍然是拉动中国经济增长不可忽视的因素之一,而且从长期来看,其对保持我国宏观经济系统的稳定运行有着重要意义。This Paper discusses the impact of export trade on China's economic growth by analyzing a stationary real variable system and a non-stationary nominal variable system separately. For the former, applying traditional OLS regression and Granger-causality test to discuss; to the latter, applying the cointegration theory to study. The empirical result proves that although the economy of China is not the export-led growth but a complex growth urged by multifactor together, export is still one of the factors that can't be ignored for the economic growth of our country. And in the long run, it has important meaning to keep the steady operation of our macro-economy system.

关 键 词：出口 经济增长 回归 GRANGER因果检验 协整 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]