海岸地区致灾台风暴潮的长期分布模式  

Long term distribution of disaster-caused typhoon storm surges in the coastal area

作　　者：董胜[1] 郝小丽[1] 李锋[1] 刘德辅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《水科学进展》2005年第1期42-46,共5页Advances in Water Science

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关项目(2001BA80306);教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金资助项目~~

摘　　要：考虑台风导致的高水位和海浪波高对风暴潮灾害的贡献,对1949年以来影响青岛地区的台风暴潮进行了抽样统计。基于二维的泊松冈贝尔逻辑分布模式,对海岸地区的致灾风暴潮进行了长期的随机分析。与传统的警戒水位法不同,新模式能够反映多种环境荷载的综合作用,推算了青岛地区的特大台风暴潮灾害的重现期。计算结果显示,二维复合分布模式适合于描述台风暴潮过程中极值水位与相应波高的联合概率,所得结论对青岛地区的防潮减灾规划和工程建设具有指导意义。On the basis of observed tide level and the wave height series sampled from typhoon processes in Qingdao area since 1949, a Poisson Bi-variable Gumbel Logistic distribution (PBGL) is put forward for statistical analysis of storm events. The PBGL model, different from the traditional warning stage method, is more capable of describing the combined effect of environmental loads, such as tide level and the concomitant wave height. The return periods are estimated for several most serious typhoons occurring in the mentioned coastal area. The results indicate that the proposed model will be suitable for representing the joint probability distribution of correlated water level and wave heights occurring in typhoon processes. The final conclusions are presented for reference when the government departments make a storm-prevention program.

关 键 词：海岸地区 致灾 台风暴潮 二维泊松冈贝尔逻辑分布 长期分布模式 重现期 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]