地震预报的新思索  

New thinking about the Earthquake prediction

作　　者：徐好民[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《地球信息科学》2002年第2期50-54,共5页Geo-information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目 (40 14 2 0 10 );国家重点基础研究发展规划项目"大陆强震机理与预测"项目 (95 130 5 0 3)的子课题的经费支持

摘　　要：地震预报工作在我国已取得了明显的进展。对此 ,我们相信在地震预报的研究中 ,只要坚持百花齐放、百家争鸣的方针 ,博采众长 ,宏观微观结合 ,对人口稠密地区 6级以上强烈破坏性地震 ,漏报、虚报的可能性都会大大降低 ,唐山一类的地震惨害有可能避免、减轻 (人员伤亡 )。所以普及地震知识 ,提高全民族科学精神对防震减灾是至关重要的。The scientists of china have already maken obvious progresses in earthquake prediction.Only CSB can persiste guiding principle to let a hundred flowers blossom and a hundred schools of thought contend, and not to demand perfecton, but to widely accept rational suggestions and combine the macroscopic methods with the microscopic ones, then the probability of false prediction and fail to prediction for strong earthquake in high population density area in China would be reduced, and the catastrophe, like the injuries and deaths of poeples in the 1976 Tangshan earthquake(Ms=7.8), would also be avoided. It is important for taking precautions against earthquakes and reducing disaster to popularize the knowledge of earthquake and improve scientific spirit for all nation people.

关 键 词：地震预报 卫星热红外图像 宏观 微观 磁暴 综合分析 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]