旅游者人数变动的统计预测分析  

The statistics, forecast and analysis of Tourists amount mobility

作　　者：汪季清[1] 

机构地区：[1]黄山学院旅游系,安徽黄山245021

出　　处：《黄山学院学报》2003年第1期95-99,共5页Journal of Huangshan University

摘　　要：旅游业是一个波动性较强的产业,由于受旅游市场多种因素的影响,往往导致旅游目的地和旅游景点旅游者人数经常发生变动,因此对旅游者人数进行统计、分析和预测有助于调节旅游市场的供求平衡,合理安排和开发旅游景点,做好旅游接待工作。本文通过使用一些统计预测模型及相应的预测方法,对旅游者的人数变动、流向变动和季节变动进行了一定的统计、分析和预测,对旅游业实践具有一定的指导意义。As an industry with great mobility, tourism is influenced by many factors such as tourism market, which cause frequent fluctuations of tourists amount in destionations and viewspots. For this reason, the statistics, forecast, and analysis of tourists amount can contribute to the balance of supply and demand in tourism market, developing viewspots in a reasonable way and doing the tourism reception work well.By using some models and methods of forecasting, this paper will keep statistics, analysis, and forecast the mobility of tourists amount, destionation and season. To some extent, it will has some valve to tourism practice.

关 键 词：旅游业 旅游者 变动 旅游市场 供求平衡 统计 人数 指导意义 实践 接待工作 

分 类 号：G811.21[文化科学—体育学] F592[经济管理—旅游管理]