中国能源消费与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析  

On the Cointegration and Causality between Chinese GDP and Energy Consumption

作　　者：韩智勇[1] 魏一鸣[1] 焦建玲[1] 范英[1] 张九天[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100080

出　　处：《系统工程》2004年第12期17-21,共5页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关课题(2001BA605A)

摘　　要：协整性分析和因果关系研究方法已经成为国际上研究能源消费与经济增长之间关系的重要工具,但迄今为止,尚没有文献报道关于中国能源与经济之间协整性和因果关系的研究工作。本文开展1978～2000年中国能源消费与经济增长协整性和因果关系的研究,结论是:中国能源消费与经济增长之间存在双向的因果关系,但不具有长期的协整性。通过研究我们认为,中国在制订能源政策时既要考虑对经济增长目标的冲击,同时也要充分估计能源供应压力的严重性和紧迫性。The methods of cointegration analysis and causality research have become very important tools in the international studies in relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, but so far, there is still no such empirical work (about) the Chinese energy consumption and economic growth. We studied this issue in this thesis. According to our (conclusions) drawn from the data of Chinese GDP and total energy consumption from 1978 to 2000, there is bi-directional (causality) between the Chinese GDP and energy consumption, but no cointegration between them, which alert us that, when making energy policies, China must consider the likely impacts to his economic growth target, meanwhile China has to fully estimate the serious and urgent pressure form energy supply.

关 键 词：能源消费 经济增长 协整性 因果关系 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]