中国北方冬小麦的水分亏缺与气候生产潜力——近40年来的动态变化研究  

Water deficiency and climatic productive potentialities of winter wheat in north of China: study on its dynamic change in recent 40 years

作　　者：王素艳[1] 霍治国[1] 李世奎[1] 薛昌颖[1] 毛飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2003年第1期121-130,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目"农林重大病虫害和农业气象灾害的预警及控制技术研究"(2001BA509B14)

摘　　要：基于辨识自然条件下的水分对北方半湿润半干旱地区冬小麦气候生产潜力的影响,采用"逐步订正法"分别计算了光合、光温和气候生产潜力,并进行了评估。从水分平衡角度,采用新颖的数理模式构建了估算气候生产潜力的水分订正函数,其中冬小麦需水量采用FAO最新推荐的Penman Mon teith公式,供水量采用新近研制的降水量和土壤有效底墒模式。计算了本区78个站点近40年(1961～2000年)逐年的气候生产潜力,分别以相对变率、变异系数以及由水分亏缺引起的减产率和水分亏缺率等为指标,分析了近40年中国北方冬小麦水分与气候生产潜力的动态变化。结果表明,由于底墒水约占冬小麦全生育期需水量的20%～30%,对气候生产潜力的贡献较大,相应地,计算得到的冬小麦气候生产潜力比以往一些结果高出约20%～30%,这对评估气候生产潜力有重要意义。在生产潜力动态变化方面,由于降水变率大,使得气候生产潜力的时空变化大于光合和光温生产潜力的时空变化,而且在河北(包括津京地区)和山东两省,水分具有由南向北、由东向西减少的趋势,陕西、山西和河南三省水分有由南向北减少的趋势,使得各项指标的变化均有与此基本相应的变化趋势。Based on understanding influence of water on the productive potentialities of winter wheat in samihumid,samiarid areas of northern China under natural climate condition,the 'correction step by step'is used to calculate photosynthesis potential productivity,phototemperature productivity and climate productive potentialities,which are evaluated then.From the balance of water, a new model is used to construct water function, during which the new formula 'PenmanMonteith' commended by FAO is used to calculate the water requirement of winter wheat, the model of 'soil effective moisture and precipitation' is used to calculate water supply.Seventy eight station's climatic productive potentialities in lately 40 years(1961～2000) are calculated year after year,and relative change rate,variance coefficient,reduction of product and the deficiency rate of water are used as indexes to analyze dynamic change of water and climatic productive potentialities.The result indicates that because effective moisture accounts for 20%～30% of the water requirement of winter wheat,and it is important to climatic productive potentialities, the climatic productive potentialities is 20%～30％ higher than that from previous studies,which has a great sense to evaluating climatic productive potentialities,The high change of precipitation makes spatiotemporal change of climatic productive potentialities bigger than that induced by photosynthesis and phototemperature. The trend of water decreasing from south to north and from east to west in Hebei (including Beijing and Tianjin) and Shandong as well as from south to north in Shanxi,Shaanxi and Henan makes every index has the same trend almostly. 

关 键 词：冬小麦 水分 气候生产潜力 动态变化 

分 类 号：S161.3[农业科学—农业气象学]