华北北部冬小麦干旱和产量灾损的风险评估  

Risk assessment of drought and yield losses of winter wheat in the northern part of North China

作　　者：薛昌颖[1] 霍治国[1] 李世奎[1] 叶彩玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2003年第1期131-139,共9页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目"农林重大病虫害和农业气象灾害的预警及控制技术研究"(2001BA509B14)

摘　　要：利用河北及京津地区53年(1949～2001年)的冬小麦实际产量资料,采用直线滑动平均法分离出趋势产量和气象产量,并将气象产量作了相对化处理;以本区主要由干旱所造成的相对气象产量负值(减产率)序列作为研究对象,根据风险理论采用风险评估技术和方法,计算了该区在干旱气候条件下冬小麦不同减产率范围出现的概率,并选取历年减产率的变异系数、历年平均减产率和减产率风险概率作为评价指标,分析了干旱气候条件下河北及京津地区历年冬小麦产量灾损的风险水平。研究结果可为冬小麦产量风险预测及抗灾减损提供科学依据。In the thesis, on the basis of yields data of Hebei Province, Beijing and Tianjin Areas from 1949 to 2002, winter wheat yield was divided into trending yield and meteorological yield by means of linear moving average. Meteorological yield was processed further to get the relative meteorological yield, in which the negative values were taken as the object for research. According to the risk assessment theory and its techniques and methods, the probabilities corresponding to different levels of yield reduction under drought climate conditions were calculated. After calculation, we chose the following assessment indices: mean and variance coefficient of rate of yield reduction over the years, and risk probability of rate of yield reduction. Through the above indices, risk levels of yield losses of winter wheat under drought climate conditions were analyzed. The results are available for reference in predicting the risk of yield losses, resisting drought disaster and decreasing losses.

关 键 词：冬小麦 干旱 减产率 风险概率 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]