关于京津沪超低生育率中外来人口分母效应的检验  

Testing the effect of in-migrants on the very low fertility in the metropolises

作　　者：郭志刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会发展研究中心

出　　处：《人口研究》2005年第1期80-83,共4页Population Research

摘　　要：本文质疑梁秋生论文中控制外来流入人口以后京津沪大城市总和生育率均高于 1 0的推算结果 ,并根据全国第五次人口普查 1‰抽样样本的京津沪育龄妇女案例进行了检验汇总。按两种不同口径的汇总结果都表明 ,京津沪户籍育龄妇女的总和生育率远远低于 1 0。This paper questions the validity of estimation of total fertility rate by Liang Qiusheng for Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, controlling the effects of the in-migrants. Liang points out that the TFR levels for the original resident women were estimated higher then 1.0 for all the three cities. However, direct calculation based on the 1‰ sample data from the latest National population census turns out that the results of TFR for original resident women of Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai are much lower than 1.0 in fact.

关 键 词：京津 汇总 抽样样本 效应 户籍 大城市 中国 总和生育率 低生育率 第五次人口普查 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]