新疆地震年度趋势预报效能的统计评价  

STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF ANNUAL EARTHQUAKE TREND PREDICTION EFFICACY IN XINJIANG

作　　者：朱令人[1] 王琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《内陆地震》2004年第4期289-299,共11页Inland Earthquake

基　　金："九五"地震科技攻关项目(96-913-01-05).

摘　　要：介绍了统计检验的基本原理和方法及地震预报效能的统计评分方法,并据此对新疆维吾尔自治区地震局年度趋势会商预报的效能进行了统计评价。结果表明,从总体上说地震中期(年度)预报能通过检验,预报评分值约为0.25—0.3,显示出新疆地震局年度会商会的预测结果对地震中期预报有一定能力。由于各年的评分涨落很大,不宜依据一、二年的评分值来说明预报能力或水平的提高或下降。The basic principle and method of statistical test and the statistical estimation method of earthquake prediction efficacy were introduced; and based on this, the prediction efficacy of annual earthquake trend consultation in the Seismological Bureau of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region was made a statistical estimation. The result shows that medium-term (annual) earthquake prediction can pass the test, the estimating mark is about (0.25)-0.3, which indicates the prediction result of annual consultation in Xinjiang Seismological Bureau has some medium-term prediction capability. But because every year's mark has large rise and fall, it is not fit to explain the change of prediction capability just based on one or two year's marks.

关 键 词：地震预报 统计检验 效能评分 盲目预报 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]