利用马尔柯夫过程预测东陵区土地利用格局的变化  

Forecast of land use pattern change in Dongling District of Shenyang: an application of Markov process.

作　　者：徐岚[1] 赵羿[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,沈阳110015

出　　处：《应用生态学报》1993年第3期272-277,共6页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：根据沈阳市东陵区3个时期遥感航片和地形图获得的土地利用类型数据,成功地确定了土地利用类型的转移概率,并用马氏链模型预测了该区土地利用类型变化趋势。结果表明,当前该区的土地利用格局正处于一种耕地逐渐减少,居民点工矿用地逐渐增加的变化状态,而且这种变化将持续很长时间,最后将达到以旱地20.66％、水田28.41％、居民点工矿用地37.42％、菜地6.15％、林地4.36％等为主要土地利用类型的稳定状态,形成一个城乡结合的新的土地利用格局。Based on the data obtained from remote sensing aerial photographes and topographic maps during three different periods, the transition probability of land use pattern in Dongling District of Shenyang is defined, and the tendency of its change is forecasted with application of Markov process. The resuits show that over a long period of time, the arable land area will be decreased gradually and the area occupied by residence, factory and mine will be increased day by day. Finally, the land use pattern will be lied in a stable state, e. g. , non -irrigated farmland occupies by 20. 66%, paddy field by 28.41%, residential area and factory-mine by 37.42%, vegetable field by 6.15% , forest land by 4.36％. At that time, a new land use pattern of urban and rural integration will be formed.

关 键 词：马尔柯夫过程 土地利用格局 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]