应用灰色数列预测模型预测细菌性痢疾发病趋势  

Prediction of Incidence Trend of Bacillary Dysentery with Grey Model of Prediction

作　　者：李应光[1] 王红军[1] 陈国华[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省泰安市卫生防疫站,271000

出　　处：《中国医院统计》1998年第4期209-211,共3页Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics

摘　　要：本文应用GM(1,1)灰色数列预测模型,对泰安市1989年～1994年细菌性痢疾的发病趋势进行了分析,并对1995年～1997年的菌痢发病率进行了外推预测。计算结果表明,该预测模型较为准确,可信度高,适宜于传染病发病率的近期外推预测。Incidence trend of bacillary dysentery from 1989 to 1994 in Taian city were analysed and incidence rates from 1995 to 1997 were predicted by grey model of prediction. The results showed that the predicted model was exact, reliable and it may predict recent incidence rates of infectious diseases.

关 键 词：灰色数列 发病趋势 细菌性痢疾 发病率 菌痢 近期 传染病 适宜 计算结果 准确 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学] R759[医药卫生—临床医学]