扩大内需与稳定低生育水平  

Expanding Domestic Demand and Stabilizing Low Fertility

作　　者：彭秀健[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口研究所

出　　处：《人口研究》2001年第1期34-38,共5页Population Research

摘　　要：中国经济经过 2 0年的快速发展 ,出现了产品过剩 ,有效需求不足的问题。中国宏观经济有效需求不足的直接原因是购买力不足 ,深层原因是长期积累的结构性矛盾的释放和体制转型时期与消费需求有关的重大体制的不到位 ,而人口的低增长并不构成我国宏观经济有效需求不足的原因。人口众多 ,人口绝对过剩是我国的基本国情 ,控制人口数量仍须作为人口政策的重点。从长期看 ,严格控制人口 ,稳定低生育水平是从根本上解决我国人口与资源矛盾 ,提高我国人均收入水平 。After 20 years rapid development in Chinas economy,surplus of products and lack of effective demand have occurred.Insufficient purchasing power being the direct cause,while the deep reason is the release of structural contradiction that has been gathered for a long time and the condition of being out of place of important systems related to consumption demand during system transition period.Low increase of population is not among the reasons.On the contrary,China is still faced with the absolute population surplus,which results in the control of population size still as the focus of population policy.In the long run,controlling population and stabilizing low fertility is a strategic choice to solve the contradiction between population and resources,improve average income per capita,and increase effective demand as well. Peng Xiujian,graduated in 1994 from Economy Department with Economics Master degree,now holds a position of lecturer at the Institute of Population Research of Peoples University of China.

关 键 词：有效需求不足 宏观经济 中国 中国 控制人口 到位 扩大内需 低生育水平 过剩 人口政策 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]