水稻二化螟［Chilo suppressalis（Walker）］发生期预测模型的探讨  

STUDIESONTHEFORECASTINGMODEL OFOCCURRENCEDATEOFRICESTEMBORER[CHILO SUPPRESSALIS (WALKER)]

作　　者：郑家仪 邓世樟 吴清美 

机构地区：[1]福建三明市农业学校,福建沙县大洛乡农技站,福建永安市曹远乡农技站

出　　处：《华东昆虫学报》1995年第2期94-98,共5页Entomological Journal of East China

摘　　要：本文利用福建省永安市１９７８－１９８８年诱虫灯下二化螟蛾发生期资料和气象资料，通过影响因子与预测对象的相关分析来选择初选因子．再应用逐步判别分析方法建立第一代二化螟蛾发生期的预测模型。经对历史资料的回报检验，该模型的判别率达９０．１－１００％；经１９８９和１９９０年实报，预报等级符合实际发生等级。The previous data on the moth occurrence date of rice stem borer[Chilosuppressalis(Walker)]under the forecasting light and the historical records ofmeteorological phenomena over the past successive year of 1978- 1988 in Yongan city wereused to select the preliminary factors according to the correlative analysis.The forecastingmodels of occurrence date for the first generation moth were established on the basis ofstepwise discriminatory analysis.The discrimination rate in the forecasting models reached90.1-100%through examination of the former data.The practical use of the models during1989- 1990 had verified the consistency between forecasting grades and actual occurrencegrades.

关 键 词：螟蛾 发生期 水稻二化螟 发生等级 诱虫灯 逐步判别分析 报检 预测模型 检验 气象资料 

分 类 号：Q968[生物学—昆虫学] S435[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]