论Usher、Logistic和Gompertz三种增长曲线的使用价值  

On the Usefulness of Usher Logistic and Gompertz Growth Curves

作　　者：俞启泰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油石油勘探开发科学研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《新疆石油地质》2001年第2期136-141,共6页Xinjiang Petroleum Geology

摘　　要：Logistic和Gompertz增长曲线是Usher增长曲线的特例，分别给出了它们用于油田开发指标预测的函数表达式。提出了一种求取Usher增长曲线参数的重复二元回归法。根据庆祖集油田的实际资料，用Usher、Logistic和Gompertz增长曲线以及功能极强的广义增长与递减曲线等4种曲线拟合计算的结果表明，广义增长与递减曲线、Usher曲线与实际值拟合得很好，其预测功能很强；Logistic曲线拟合得也较好，也有较大的使用价值；而Gompertz曲线由于峰值产量对应的累积产量与最大可采储量比值的变化范围较小，因而拟合结果较差，使用价值相对较小。指出了用于油田开发全程的广义增长曲线是今后增长曲线的研究方向。The logistic growth curve and the Gompertz growth curve are the special case of the Usher growth curve． Their functional expressions are introduced respectively which were used for prediction of oilfield development indexes． A repeated dual-variate regression equation aimed to obtain parameters of Usher growth curve is suggested． Based on actual data of oilfield using Usher Logistic and Gompertz growth curves as well as a most functional broad sense growth and decline curve the matching calculation results of mentioned four curves have shown that the generalized growth and decline curve as well as the Usher curve are both very well matched with actual value representing powerful capability of prediction． The Logistic curve shows relatively good matching result have relatively good usefulness． However with respects to Gompertz curve owing to the narrow range of ratio between the peak output corresponding cumulative production and maximum recoverable reserve so the matching result is less good and this curve is less useful． This paper points out that the future study on growth curve should be oriented to generalized growth curve which can be applied to the entire procedure of oilfield development．

关 键 词：增长曲线 递减曲线 庆祖集油田 油田开发指标 可采储量 拟合 峰值 使用价值 实际值 Logistic曲线 

分 类 号：TE319[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程] TE32