从稳定低生育率到稳定人口──新世纪人口态势模拟  

From Stabillzing the Low Fertility to a Stable population

作　　者：刘金塘[1] 林富德[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口研究所人口统计教研室 [2]中国人民大学人口研究所

出　　处：《人口研究》2000年第4期35-40,共6页Population Research

摘　　要：本文首先讨论了低生育率的内涵，从稳定人口理论出发探讨了稳定低生育率的必要性。低生育率以更替水平为上限，政策生育水平为下限。对低生育率变化范围内，未来百年的中国人口发展趋势进行了模拟，根据结果探讨了２１世纪的中国人口发展战略。This paper defines the low fertility as a fertility zone with the upper limit being the replacement level and the lower limit being the policy level. Necessity of stabilizing the low fertility is discussed based on the Stable population theory. Within the low fertility range, a 100 year long population projection is prepared for China as a whole and China's population development strategies are explored using the projection results. Liu Jintang is associate professor, and Lin Fude is professor, Institute of Population Research, People's University of China.

关 键 词：低生育率 中国人口 人口理论 生育水平 百年 态势 未来 政策 发展战略 发展趋势 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]