500hPa平均环流形势月预报水平的评估  

ASSESSMENT OF THE ACCURACY IN MONTHLY FORECASTS OF 500hPa HEIGHT

作　　者：李小泉[1] 李维京 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1993年第A12期69-75,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家基础性研究重大关键项目"气候动力学和气候预测理论的研究";国家气象局〈八五〉重点项目"长期天气预报理论与方法研究"

摘　　要：该文讨论了500hPa 平均环流形势预报水平的评估问题.平均来说,各月都是气候预报的准确率最小,年际变化持续性预报次之,月际变化持续性最高.T42L9模式延伸预报的第一旬和月平均环流的预报准确率均高于气候预报与持续性预报,表明确是有技巧的.An assessment of the accuracy in monthly 500hPa height forecasts is discussed.Inaverage,the accuracies of climatic forecast,persistence forecast of interannual variabili-ty,and persistence forecast of intermonthly variability are the worst,the secondary andthe best,respectively.The accuracies of extended forecast for the first decade andmonthly mean circulations from the T42L9 model are better than those of climatic fore-cast and persistence forecast.

关 键 词：大气环流 月预报 准确率 评估 

分 类 号：P457.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]