我国东部旱涝变化规律及其影响因子  

VARIATIONS OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN THE EAST OF CHINA AND THEIR INFLUENTIAL FACTORS

作　　者：张先恭[1] 魏凤英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1993年第A12期81-88,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：长期天气预报理论和方法研究课题

摘　　要：根据近五百年旱涝等级和近40年500hPa 高度和太平洋海面温度资料,用 EOF 方法研究了中国东部各站汛期旱涝等级的时空分布及其所对应的环流和海温场特征.分析表明,各旱涝特征向量在环流和海温场上的差异,主要表现为从亚洲西风带到东亚副热带500hPa 高度距平的波列分布,以及与 ENSO 相联系的北太平洋海温距平场的特征.在时间变化方面则是各旱涝型均有37.8、23—26和17—19年周期,它们分别与南方涛动、太阳活动和月赤纬的变化周期相对应.By using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis,the spatial and tempo-ral distribution of drought and flood in the east of China during May—September andtheir features in atmospheric and oceanic anomaly fields are investigated.It is found thatthe differences among various eigenvectors in the aspects of general circulation and seasurface temperature (SST) in North Pacific essentially appear as the distribution ofwavetrain of 500 hPa height anomalies from the westerlies to subtropical zone in Asia,and the distribution of SST anomalies in North Pacific related to the ENSO events.Forthe temporal variation,all of the first three eigenvectors have a significant periodicitywith 37.8,23—26 and 17—19 years,respectively.They may he related to the varia-tions of Southern Oscillation,solar activity and lunar declination,respectively.

关 键 词：旱涝 变化规律 影响因子 海-气关系 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]