地震前兆综合危险度  

COMPREHENSIVE RISK DEGREE OF EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS

作　　者：张昭栋[1] 吴子泉[1] 王尤培[1] 王红卫[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东省地震局,中国济南250021

出　　处：《地震》1994年第4期30-36,共7页Earthquake

摘　　要：以系统论为基础,本文给出了一种地震综合预报的新方法——用地震前兆综合危险度来预测较大地震发生的可能性。利用这一方法对山东省1977—1991年出现的地震前兆异常进行分析,在1983年菏泽M_S5.9地震前地震危险度明显升高。其中所有的异常都取自每年年底的山东省地震会商报告,而不是取自地震后的震例总结或论文。然而,这些异常在“专家系统”等其他方法计算结果中,并没有显示出在1983年11月将有中强地震发生。 利用本方法还计算了1984—1991年9月山西地区的地震危险度,在1989午大同M_S6.1和1991年大同M_S5.8地震前地震危险度也明显升高。最后,讨论了计算地震危险度的时间—与空间问题。Based on the systematic theory, this paper introduced a new method of comprehensive earthquake predietion——the comprehensive risk degree of earthquake precursors is used to predicted the possibility of the occurrence of relatively strong earthquakes. This method was used to analyze the anomalies of earthquake precursors appearing in Shandong Province from 1977 to 1991, the seismic risk degree before 1983 Heze earthquake with M 5.9 rose obviously. All the anomalies were selected from the Seismic Consultation Conference Reports at the end of each year instead of selscting them from the earthquake case summarization. However, these anomalies did not show that there would occur a moderately strong earthquake in November, 1983 in the 'special system' and computed results of other methods. This method was used to calculate the seismic risk degree in Shanxi Province from 1984 to September 1991, the seismic risk degree before the 1989 Datong earthquake with M 6.1 and 1991 Datong with Ms 5.8 also rose obviously. Finally, authors here discussed the time and space problems for computating seismic risk degree.

关 键 词：地震前兆 危险性 综合预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]