中期强震预报的TIP方法原理及其应用  

PRINCIPLE OF TIP METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO MEDIUM-LONG TERM PREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKES

作　　者：陆锦花 朱元清[1] 郭育[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市地震局,助理工程师上海200062 [2]辽宁省地震局,沈阳110031

出　　处：《地震学刊》1994年第1期14-19,共6页Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：在剖析了V.keilia-Borok研究小组近年来提出的强震预报(Time of increasedprobability)方法的基础上,本文简要地介绍了该方法的原理,采用1970-01-01至1991-12-31的全国地震目录,通过两种途径,用Tip方法对云南省和台湾省发生的7级以上(含7级)强震做了检验地震目录,通过表明Tip方法对强震的预报成功率还是较高的.在此基础上,我们又试验将该方法推广应用于云南省发生的6.5级以上(含6.5级)地震,结果表明适当修改地震流函数后,也可以得到较满意的结果.The principle of time of increased probability (TIP) method is briefly presented in terms of analysis of the method of strong earthquake prediction propoeed recently by V. Keilis-Borok research group. The strong earthquakes (Ms≥7. 0) of Tawain and Yunnan provinces were retrievely predicted in two way with TIP method using earthquake caralog of China from 1 Jan. , 1970 to 31 Dec. . 1991. It has been shown that successful rate of strong earthquake prediction is still higher. Then , this method is extended to the application of prediction of the earthquakes (Ms≥6. 5) occurred in Yunnan province, and the satisfactory results may be attained so long as the function of earthquak flow is modified.

关 键 词：地震预报 强震 TIP法 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]