地震预测的辩论及其发展  

ARGUMENTS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS

作　　者：李忠友[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京防灾技术高等专科学校

出　　处：《国际地震动态》1994年第12期18-23,共6页Recent Developments in World Seismology

摘　　要：地震预测是世人十分关注的问题，也是地球科学的焦点问题。本文以地震预测的“确定论”和“随机论”、“经验预测”和“物理预测”的争论为线索，介绍了地震预测的发展历史，并提出解决这一世界难题的决策性意见。文中还叙述了我国地震学家对地震预测的精辟见解。The problem of earthquake prediction always attracts people’s close attention,and is aiso a focalpoint for geoscience researches.Based on the threads of arguments about“ deterministic”and“stochastic”,“empirical”and“physical”earthquake predictions,the paper outlines the developmenthistory of earthquake prediction, and proposes some decision-making views for the solution to such aworld-wide difficult problem,Some penetrating analysis made by the Chinese seismologists on earth-quake prediction are also depicted in this paper.

关 键 词：地震预报 确定论 随机论 地震科学 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]