亚欧500hPa旬平均形势预报的改进及检验  

Improvement and Test of Eurasian 500hPa Ten Days Average Prognosis

作　　者：任金声[1] 李晓东[1] 林玉成[1] 吴金瑞 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心

出　　处：《气象》1994年第9期34-37,共4页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：利用数值预报产品，对原亚欧５００ｈＰａ旬平均形势预报方程作了改进。除对空间和时间尺度上作了改进外，在预报因子的选择上，由亚欧地区的单点相关，扩张至整个北半球的相关；并根据长波天气系统的气候地理分布和遥相关分析等方法，选择关键区作为候选因子，组建了新的形势预报方程。经检验比较，新的形势预报方程高度距平正确率和长波系统位置正确率分别提高了０．１５—０．２０和０．１０。The improvement of Eurasian 500hPa ten days average prognostic eqaution has been improved with NWP product, besides the spatial-temporal scale, predictions among grid by grid correlation from Eurasian to the northern hemisphere,the climate geographical distribution of the long-wave weather system and the methods of teleconnection analysis etc. were chosen for the critical region, to construct new prognostic equation. A comparison betweenthese two prognosis, the forecast accuracy of the new prognosis was improved respectively,0. 15-0. 20 and 0. 10 on forecast height and position of the long-wave weather system.

关 键 词：数值预报数据 天气预报 形势预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]