地方保护主义对地区产业结构的影响——理论与实证分析  

Local Protectionism and Regional Specialization:——A Model and Econometric Evidences

作　　者：胡向婷[1] 张璐[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国经济研究中心,100871

出　　处：《经济研究》2005年第2期102-112,共11页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：本文旨在考察地区政府保护对地方产业结构的作用,对地区间产业结构趋同问题进行了研究。本文首先提出理论模型,在一个厂商投资行为模型中,从改变地区间贸易成本和政府直接投资两个方面引入地方政府行为变量,讨论政府行为对地区产业结构的影响。模型分析发现贸易成本的增加会促使地区间产业结构趋同,而政府直接投资对产业结构的影响并不确定,在一定情况下会促进地区间产业结构差异化。这些结论在随后进行的对中国近年地区和产业数据的实证研究中得到了验证。趋势分析发现样本年间我国地区产业结构差异的全国平均水平在逐年增大。而以地区为着眼点的计量回归分析则发现,在控制了运输条件、地区资源差异和产业结构等历史因素之后,政府变量对地区间产业结构差异变化有显著影响。政府设置贸易壁垒增加地区间贸易成本,会促进地区间产业结构趋同。政府的投资行为则在整体上促进了地区间产业结构的差异化。This paper aims at analyze the influence from local government to the local industrial structure, paying particular attention to manufacturing industry. Two kinds of approaches by which the Local government implements its influence are considered, one is to block the interregional trade by increasing the exchange cost, and another is to directly invest in local industries. A two-period model is presented to show the government's influence in the process of local industrial structure adjustment. Meanwhile, a dynamic model reveals what government behaviors can do about the steady-point industrial structure. The analysis outcomes are consistent. Increase in exchange cost can reduce the degree of regional specialization within the industries considered, while the direct investment by local governments has ambiguous effect, and it will enhance regional specialization in proper condition. Further, the data analysis demonstrates the theoretical conclusion. The trend analysis by computing SD and Krugman's Index shows that the national-wide average degree of regional specialization increases during the sample period. And by controlling the transportation cost, the difference of the resource endowments and the history factors, the results of econometric analysis the regressions show that the governments have significant effects on the regional specialization. The governments block the interregional trade by increasing the exchange cost, then lead to the convergence of the industry structure between provinces, while the government investments increase the difference of the industry structure as a whole.

关 键 词：地区产业结构 产业结构趋同 政府直接投资 差异化 成本 贸易 中国 区间 结论 变量 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]