干旱区水资源承载力多目标层次评价——以民勤县为例  

Evaluation of the Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Arid Areas by Using Multi-objective Hierarchical Analysis ——A case study in Minqin County, Gansu Province

作　　者：马金珠[1] 李相虎[1] 贾新颜[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2005年第1期11-16,共6页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目 (4 0 3 0 2 0 3 1);香港乐施会基金项目 (CHN0 715 -0 2A)

摘　　要：利用多目标层次分析模型 ,对民勤县未来 5 ,10 ,2 0a的水资源承载力进行分析预测 ,并采用水资源承载隶属度对民勤县未来 2 0a内的水资源承载状况进行评判。结果表明 ,随着节水水平提高、产业结构调整、退耕还林还草以及污水处理等措施的实施 ,民勤县的生态与环境有所改善 ,社会经济状况会随经济的发展逐步得到改善 ,最终达到可承载的程度。而水资源短缺将是一个长期问题 ,今后须加大水利工程的投资力度 ,增加跨流域调水 ,扩大退耕还林还草面积 ,逐渐转向牧业经营的发展模式。Shortage of water resource is a key factor restricting the social and economic development and the ecological environmental conservation in arid areas. Carrying capacity of water resources is an important component in the carrying capacity of all the natural resources in achieving the national and regional sustainable development, especially in arid areas. In this paper, the carrying capacity of water resources in Minqin County, Gansu Province in next 5, 10 and 20 years is analyzed and predicted by using the model of multi-objective hierarchical analysis and the subjection of carrying capacity of water resources in Minqin County. The county is located in the lower reaches of the Shiyanghe River in the Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, and it is a typical alluvial desert oasis. The total area of Minqin County is 16 016 km2(2.40×107 hm2), in which the areas of oasis, deserts and farmlands are 3.84×106 hm2, 2.02×107 hm2 and 1.02×106 hm2 respectively. The county has population of 3.03×105. The total volume of water resources is 1.71×108 m3, the water consumption, however, is as high as 7.83×108 m3, in which the surface water consumption and groundwater consumption are 8.6×107 m3 and 6.98×108 m3 respectively. The proportions of water consumption for the industry and drinking water, ecology and agricultural irrigation are 2.2%, 10.6% and 87.2% respectively. Minqin County is in serious shortage of water resources, however, the study results show that the ecological environment and the social and economic development in Minqin County in the future will be improved and the carrying capacity of water resources will be balanced along with implementing the projects of water-saving irrigation, regulation of industrial structure and withdrawing from farming to afforesting and grass planting. However, the shortage of water resources will be a long-term problem in the county, so it is suggested to enhance the dynamics of constructing the irrigation works, increase the volume of inter-watershed water diversion, enlarge

关 键 词：民勤县 投资力度 退耕还林还草 牧业 经营 产业结构调整 增加 干旱区 利用 节水 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]