机场旅客吞吐量的影响机理与预测方法研究  

Forecasting Method and Its Mechanism of Impacts on Airport Passenger Throughput

作　　者：焦朋朋[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学交通研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2005年第1期107-110,共4页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金 (5 0 1 780 42 )

摘　　要：旅客吞吐量的预测对于机场的建设和管理具有重要的意义 ,而目前多数预测技术都不适用于我国尚不成熟的航空市场 .本文从可能影响机场旅客吞吐量的若干因素出发 ,采用主成分分析法提取了最关键的因素 ,剖析了机场旅客吞吐量的内在影响机理 ,并且提出了基于影响机理的预测模型 .以北京首都机场的旅客吞吐量预测为例进行了应用研究 ,采用趋势分析法对预测结果进行了检验 .结果表明 ,模型能够较准确地预测出机场的旅客吞吐量 .Forecast of passenger throughput is very important for airport construction and management. However, most forecasting methods are not suitable for Chinese immature aviation market. This paper analyzed factors that possibly influence airport passenger throughput, distilled the most pivotal factors by principal component analysis, anatomized inherent mechanism of effects of airport passenger throughput, and put forward a forecasting model based on the mechanism. This paper also applied the model in the forecast of capital airport passenger throughput, and compared the results with trend analysis. Experimental results show that the model can be exactly applied in the forecast of airport passenger throughput.

关 键 词：旅客吞吐量 北京首都机场 影响机理 趋势分析法 航空市场 预测方法 主成分分析法 预测技术 因素 预测模型 

分 类 号：U691[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] F562[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]