北方农牧交错带理论载畜量对气候变化的响应——以定西县为例  

The response of theoretical stocking rate in northern farming-pastoral transitional zone to climate change ——an example of Dingxi County

作　　者：闫丽娟[1] 张恩和[1] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学农学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《草业科学》2005年第3期8-10,共3页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：澳大利亚 ACIAR资助项目"提高甘肃黄土高原西部雨养农业系统的生产力与持续性的研究"(LWZ/1999/094)

摘　　要：随着气候的变化,北方农牧交错带草地生产力下降,组成变坏,质量下降。根据作物、天然草地和人工草地的理论生产潜力、可食性生物量和牲畜采食率(利用率)推算出各草场类型的理论载畜量。根据气候变化周期,对理论载畜量与现实载畜量进行了周期预测,若维持目前品质和生产结构方式,预测到2024 年现实载畜量将达到最大理论载畜量。The grassland productivity and quality in northern farming-pastoral transitional zone decreased along with climate changes. The theoretical stocking rate could be calculated on the base of crop, natural and artificial grassland production potential, edible biomass and animal utilization. The theoretical and practical stocking rates were predicted according to climate change cycles. The practical stocking rate would reach the largest theoretical stocking rate in 2024, if the present quality and production structure were maintained.

关 键 词：北方农牧交错带 理论潜力 现实潜力 预测 

分 类 号：S812.1[农业科学—草业科学]