现有堤防的可靠性及其设防水平的费用效益分析模型  

Reliability and a cost-benefit analysis model for flood standard of the existing dike protection

作　　者：高延红[1] 张俊芝[1] 孙东亚[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310032 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院防洪减灾研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《浙江工业大学学报》2005年第1期16-20,34,共6页Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology

摘　　要：根据工程结构可靠性分析的基本原理,提出了现有堤防工程结构主要的失效模式,研究了现有堤防结构的条件失效概率及其系统的可靠度计算模型.对现有堤防工程的失效条件概率进行了定性分析,并提出了其系统可靠度的点值计算方法;提出了一个基于可靠度提高的现有堤防工程设防水平的费用效益模型,分析了模型中的费用效益参数与其可靠度之间的关系,并建议了基于可靠性有关参数的计算方法.在上述研究的基础上,给出了一个堤防加高的决策分析例题.研究的结论可供在选择堤防工程加高的设防洪水标准时使用.According to basic analysis theory of engineering structure, the main failure modes of the existing dike structure are presented; the calculating models of system reliability for the conditional failure probability and the existing dike structural system are studies. Its conditional probability of failure is researched by qualitative method,and a point value method for the system reliability of existing dikes is presented also. Based on reliability,a cost-benefit model for flood standard of protection increase of existing dike engineering is presented and researched,and the relations between cost-benefit parameters and the reliability is analyzed,and the calculating method for the parameters is proposed also on the basis of reliability. According to the study aforementioned,an example of decision analysis to heighten a existing dike is given. The study result can be used to select the flood standard of protection for height increase of the existing levee engineering.

关 键 词：堤防工程 洪水标准 防洪 加高 费用效益 工程结构可靠性 系统可靠度 设防 防水 失效概率 

分 类 号：TV871[水利工程—水利水电工程] TU352.11[建筑科学—结构工程]