人民币均衡汇率的估计和评价  

Estimation and Evaluation of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate

作　　者：窦祥胜[1] 杨炘[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2005年第2期29-34,共6页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金课题"人民币均衡汇率研究"的前期阶段性的初步研究成果之一。项目编号: 70173006

摘　　要：均衡汇率模型的核心是分析基本经济因素变化对均衡汇率的影响,并利用它们之间存在着的系统联系来估计均衡汇率。通过现代计量经济分析发现,国内投资、经济增长、利用外资效果和对外贸易状况,是人民币均衡实际汇率的长期决定因素。分析结果表明,人民币汇率已经进入一个相对稳定的变化发展阶段。The core of equilibrium exchange rate model is to analyze the effect of basic economic factors on equilibrium exchange rate, and to estimate equilibrium exchange rate according to systemic relation between equilibrium exchange rate and basic economic factors. By econometric analysis, we find that domestic investment, economic growth, used effect of foreign capital and foreign trade are the long-run deteminative factors of RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The analytic outcome indicates that RMB exchange rate has entered into the phase of relative steady.

关 键 词：人民币 均衡汇率 经济因素 汇率水平 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]