Research of relationship between uncertainty and investment  

作　　者：孟力 汪定伟 

机构地区：[1]School of Information Science & Engineering, Northeastern University [2]School of Management, Shenyang University of Technology, Shenyang 110023, China

出　　处：《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》2005年第4期334-338,共5页浙江大学学报（英文版）A辑（应用物理与工程）

基　　金：Project (Nos. 60084003,70171056) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China

摘　　要：This study focuses on revealing the relationship between uncertainty and investment probability through real option model involving investment critical trigger and project earning. Use of Matlab software on the experimental results showing that project earning volatility influences investment probability, led the authors to conclude that this notion is not always correct, as increasing uncertainty should have an inhibiting effect on investment, and that in certain situation, increasing uncertainty actually increases the investment probability and so, should have positive impact on investment.This study focuses on revealing the relationship between uncertainty and investment probability through real option model involving investment critical trigger and project earning. Use of Matlab software on the experimental results showing that project earning volatility influences investment probability, led the authors to conclude that this notion is not always correct, as increasing uncertainty should have an inhibiting effect on investment, and that in certain situation, increasing uncertainty actually increases the investment probability and so, should have positive impact on investment.

关 键 词：INVESTMENT UNCERTAINTY Real option Stochastic process 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]