长江流域近40年强降水的变化趋势  

Change Trends of Heavy Rainfall Events for Last 40 years in the Changjiang Valley

作　　者：杨宏青[1] 陈正洪 石燕[3] 任国玉[4] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学系,湖北省气象科学技术研究所210093 [2]湖北省气象科学技术研究所 [3]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所 [4]国家气候中心

出　　处：《气象》2005年第3期66-68,共3页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关项目课题"全球与中国气候变化的检测和预测 (2 0 0 1BA6 11B 0 1)"资助

摘　　要：利用长江流域 1 0 9个气象站 1 96 0～ 2 0 0 1年的逐日降水资料 ,采用泰森多边形方法计算整个长江流域的面雨量 ,研究了长江流域面雨量的变化趋势。结果表明 :长江流域年面雨量呈增加趋势 ,但不显著。从长江流域各站暴雨日数和暴雨量趋势变化的空间分布来看 ,长江流域年、夏季 6～ 8月的暴雨日数和暴雨量表现为较大范围的增加趋势 ,但通过显著性检验的站并不多 ,显著增加的中心在江西省。Using the daily rainfall data of 109 stations from 1960 to 2001, the area rainfall over the Changjiang valley is calculated with Taison polygon method, and the change trend of area rainfall for this region is analyzed. The result shows that there is a slight increasing trend of the annual area rainfall in the region. The spatial distribution of the trend coefficient of heavy rain frequency and rainfall in the region are also discussed. At most stations, annual and summer (June-to-August) heavy rain frequency and heavy rainfall show to be increasing. However, the increasing tendency is significant at a few stations. The center of the significant increase lies in Jiangxi Province.

关 键 词：长江流域 泰森多边形法 暴雨日数 强降水 气候变化 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]