基于实物期权的油气开采许可证策略分析  

Oil and gas development licensing strategy based on real options approach.

作　　者：张永峰[1] 杨树锋[1] 陈汉林[1] 贾承造[2] 凌春华[3] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学地球科学系,浙江杭州310027 [2]中国石油天然气股份有限公司,北京100011 [3]浙江大学管理学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（理学版）》2005年第2期236-240,共5页Journal of Zhejiang University（Science Edition）

基　　金：中国石油天然气股份有限公司"油气勘探生产发展战略及经济评价方法研究"项目 (10 740 1-C0 0 110 )资助 .

摘　　要：石油与天然气作为我国最重要的矿产资源,其矿权管理采用许可证制度.基于我国的石油与天然气许可证体系结构,分析了石油天然气勘查与开采许可证的实物期权特性,采用实物期权思想对油气勘探开发项目进行战略经济评价,针对传统方法在颁发开采许可证时忽略了时间灵活性价值这一问题,提出了估算颁发开采许可证价值和对投资开发时机进行选择的办法.为资源管理部门和石油公司的决策提供科学依据.最后。As the most important resource of China, oil and gas are managed by licensing policy. The real options characters of the exploration and development licensing were analyzed, which is based on the structure of Chinese oil and gas licensing framework. An oil-gas exploration and development project was evaluated strategically by real options approach. The value of the flexibility of timing, which was always ignored by traditional approach, was considered here as an emphasis. A scientific evidence was provided not only for the authorities, but also for the petroleum companies. The binomial lattice, which is efficient for compound real options, was used on the illustration of an instance.

关 键 词：油气勘探开发 实物期权法 二叉树 许可证制度 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济]