寿命不确定性、生育率与随机经济增长  

Uncertain longevity, fertility and stochastic economic growth

作　　者：汪红初[1] 胡适耕[1] 周晓阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学数学系,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《华中科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2005年第3期96-98,共3页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目 (70 2 710 6 9) .

摘　　要：在生育率内生的情况下 ,引入寿命不确定性 ,建立生育率、死亡概率和经济增长率的随机动态模型 .在本文中的假设下 ,当风险厌恶系数足够大时 ,生育率关于死亡概率的函数曲线是倒U型的 ,经济增长率关于死亡概率的函数曲线则是U型的 ,此时个人福利存在一个最优值 ;当风险厌恶系数较小时 ,生育率与死亡率是正相关的 ,经济增长率与死亡概率也是正相关的 .另外 ,死亡风险和抚养成本的大小对生育率和经济增长也有不同的影响 .The uncertain longevity and endogenous fertility were introduced into a stochastic model in the continuous time, overlapping generations′ economy. Under the assumptions in this paper, it was shown that if relative risk averse coefficient (RRAC) was relatively large, then fertility was reverse U shaped in mortality while economic growth rate was U shaped in mortality; but if RRAC was relatively small, then mortality and fertility were positively correlated while mortality and economic growth rate were negatively correlated. In addition, the effects of death risk and child raising cost were analyzed, too.

关 键 词：内生生育率 死亡概率 边际抚养成本 死亡风险 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]