定量评价SARS干预措施效果的传播动力学模型  

To develop a model on severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemics to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures

作　　者：蔡全才[1] 姜庆五[1] 徐勤丰[2] 程翔[3] 郭强[4] 孙庆文[3] 赵根明[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,上海200032 [2]复旦大学管理学院统计学系,上海200032 [3]第二军医大学数理教研室 [4]第二军医大学训练部

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2005年第3期153-158,共6页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：教育部防治"非典"科技攻关课题资助项目(No.10);上海市科委"非典"防治专项科研基金(NK2003 002)

摘　　要：目的　建立一种可以用于严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS)干预措施效果定量评价的传播动力学模型。方法　根据SARS流行规律,以传染病 SEIR流行模型为基础,增设病例管理人群和控制措施相关参数,从而建立起 SARS的传播动力学模型。以北京市 2003 年 SARS流行为实例,说明所建模型在干预措施效果定量评价上的应用。结果　所建立的模型可以随时调整干预措施相关参数。通过干预情景假定,可以模拟各种干预措施情况下SARS的流行过程,从而对干预措施效果做出定量评价。实例研究发现,该模型可以较好地模拟北京市 2003 年 SARS流行过程;北京市 2003 年 4月20日前后采取的措施对SARS疫情控制起到了关键性的作用。结论　所建立的 SARS流行模型是可靠和稳定的,可以用于SARS干预措施效果的定量评价。Objective To build an epidemic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome(SARS) to be used to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures. Methods Following the nature of SARS epidemics,an epidemic model of SARS based on SEIR model of infectious disease was built,in which case management group was set up and some parameters related to control measures were included. As an example, data gathered from Beijing was fitted to illustrate its application to quantitatively evaluate the intervention measures. Results In the newly developed model of epidemics,parameters related to control measures could easily be modified. When scenario assumption was used,a model on SARS outbreak under various circumstances of intervention measures could be set. Thus, quantitative evaluation of intervention measures could perfectly be caried out. Pilot study revealed that the fitness existed in modeling the outbreak of SARS in Beijing and the intervention measures implemented around April 20,2003,had major contribution to the control of SARS. Conclusion The model of SARS epidemics seemed to be stable and reliable to be used to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures implemented during the SARS outbreak in a quantitative way.

关 键 词：干预措施 严重急性呼吸综合征(SARS) 效果 流行过程 北京 定量评价 人群 传播 结论 情景 

分 类 号：R511.9[医药卫生—内科学]