灰色模型GM(1,1)结合Excel实现药品销售预测  

The Prediction of Medicine Consumption Combined Grey Model with Excel

作　　者：查振中[1] 王晖[2] 

机构地区：[1]安庆石化医院,安庆市246001 [2]广东医学院药理教研室,湛江市524023

出　　处：《中国医院管理》2004年第5期41-42,共2页Chinese Hospital Management

摘　　要：目的:预测医院药品销售趋势。方法:利用灰色模型GM(1,1)的预测原理,在Excel电子表格中实现数据 的自动计算和处理,实时得出预测结果。结果:根据拟合公式得出的预测值与实际值比较,预测精度大于97％,后验差比值 C=0.053 8。结论:灰色模型GM(1,1)是一种预测医院药品销售趋势的简便易行的方法,易推广,有较强的实用性。Objective To predict medicine consumption trend of hospital. Method Through the prediction principle of Grey Model, we can carry on automatic calculation and management of data in Excel, and get prediction outcome punctually. Results Based on fitness formula,we can compare predicted value with actual value and draw a conclusion:precision of prediction is more than 97 percent and the value of C is 0.0538. Conclusion The Grey Model is easy and feasible a method of predicting medicine consumption trend of hospital. It is easy to spread and has better practicability.

关 键 词：灰色模型 EXCEL 药品销售额 预测 

分 类 号：F407.7[经济管理—产业经济]