MM4模式中站点相关性的研究和客观分析方案的改进  

A STUDY OF THE CORRELATIVITY BETWEEN WEATHEATHER STATIONS AND THE IMPOVEMENT OF THE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SCHEME OF MM4 MODEL

作　　者：朱蓉[1] 徐大海[1] 朱彤[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1994年第4期436-443,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家<八五>攻关课题

摘　　要：采用多元统计学中的主成分分析法，通过对ＭＭ４模式计算范围内１６９个测站的风、压、湿和温度的相关分析，确定了Ｂ９个关键站，另外８０个非关键站可由这８９个关键站通过多元回归的方法求得。用这种方法，整个计算区域内的统计信息损失量大约不超过２％。文章选取１９９２年７月２４日到２５日的一次暴雨过程，用关键站和相关最大的站，对缺测的站使用多无回归的方法补值，然后再用ＭＭ４模式进行数值预报试验，发现客观分析场和预报场的准确度都有提高。Using the principal component analysis in multivariate statistical analysis ,thecorrelations between 169 weather stations are discussed in the computational domain ofthe MM4 forecast model.The result shows that there are 89 key stations which play animportant role in the forecasting, and the information of the other stations could beobtained from them by multivariate linear regression。 It also shows that the loss of thestatistical information in the whole domain is less than 2%。A storm rainfall event on 24-25,July 1992 is selected to test the regressionmethod which is used to supplement the missing data. It is found that the objectiveanalysis field and forecast field are improved.

关 键 词：MM4模式 客观分析方案 相关性 风 湿度 温度 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]