大型油库消防系统建设的决策树研究  

Research on Decision Tree of Fire Protection System for Large Tank Farms.

作　　者：姚运涛[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军后勤工程学院储运教研室

出　　处：《油气储运》1994年第1期28-31,共4页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：安全是油库最重要的一项工作。用于消防方面的投资,占油库建设总费用的15％～20％,对于一座大型油库,消防建设费用则达数百万元。而油库消防投资的效益如何,随着市场经济的发展,油库必须加强经济核算,投资效益已越来越引起了人们的重视。运用专家预测法和决策树分析法,对油库火灾事故及其消防建设投资进行风险性决策分析,通过计算认为:方案Ⅲ最优,该方案不建消防系统,只配备少量小型移动式消防器材,其总体经济效益最好。但这并不意味着可以轻视安全,相反地应加强安全意识,坚持预防为主。并从综合定性与定量两方面的分析,为油库消防系统的发展提出了一些建议。Safety is one of the most important factors on oil tank farms. Fire protection cost usually takes 15- 20 percent of that for total tank farm construction. Sometimes million yuan(RMB) is spent on fire protection facilities. With the development of market economy, economic accounting for a tank farm has got to be strengthened. People are paying more and more attention to investment profit. Therefore expert prediction and 'Decision Tree' are used for risky analysis on a tank farm fire and fire protection investment. Through calculation, Plan III (Sited in the paper)is considered to be superior, according to which, it is necessary to construct a, fire protection system. But only a small quantity of mobile fire protection equipment is needed. The total economic benefit is the best, which doesn't mean that safety can be ignored, but on the contrary, consiousness of safety should be raised. People are supposed to adhere to the principle of putting prevention into the first place. Suggestions for the development of fire protection system for tank farms are set forth based on combined quality and quantity.

关 键 词：油库 安全 消防 

分 类 号：TE687[石油与天然气工程—油气加工工程]