气候变化对海河流域水文特性的影响  

Hydrological variation in Haihe River Basin due to climate change

作　　者：袁飞[1] 谢正辉[2] 任立良[1] 黄琼[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《水利学报》2005年第3期274-279,共6页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(90411007)

摘　　要：本文应用大尺度陆面水文模型———可变下渗能力模型VIC(VariableInfiltrationCapacity)与区域气候变化影响研究模型PRECIS(ProvidingRegionalClimateforImpactsStudies)耦合,对气候变化情景下海河流域水资源的变化趋势进行预测。结果表明:未来气候情景下,即使海河流域降水量增加,年平均径流量仍将可能减少,预示海河流域的水资源将十分短缺;若考虑21世纪人口增长因素,海河流域的水资源形势将更加严峻;未来气候情景下,汛期的径流量增加,说明海河流域发生洪水的可能性将增大。The variation trend of water resources in Haihe River basin for different scenarios of climate change are predicted by means of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Model combining with Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) Model. The results show that in spite of the increase of rainfall the mean annual runoffs for different future climate scenarios are tend to decrease, which implies more serious water shortage will occur. If the population increase in 21st century is taken into consideration the shortage of water resources will be more rigorous. Moreover, an increase of runoff in flood season for future climate scenarios is found, indicating a larger possibility of flooding will happen to the basin in the future.

关 键 词：VIC模型 气候变化 区域气候模型 径流 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]