雨季段中长期预报模糊聚类模型及其应用  

Mid and long term hydrology forecast model and its application

作　　者：王振宇[1] 梁汉华[1] 刘国华[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学水利与海洋工程学系,杭州310027

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2005年第2期30-34,45,共6页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金 (50 2 790 4 6) ;浙江省自然科学基金 (Y50 4 2 2 8)

摘　　要：为了克服对中小流域作径流预报时收集预报因子的困难 ,在中长期径流模糊聚类预报模型基础上 ,结合径流的周期变化规律 ,提出了雨季段中长期模糊聚类预报模型。该模型从雨季段径流的周期性规律中提取预报因子 ,把模糊聚类预报模型从年径流预报推广至雨季段径流预报。在对丰潭水电站雨季段径流的预报中 ,取得了满意的结果。It is difficult to gather forecast factors in hydrology forecast in small and medium watersheds. This paper presents a fuzzy clustering forecast model (FCFM) to predict mid and long-term hydrology in rainy seasons, based upon the annually FCFM and the periodicity of the hydrology. The developed model extends the applicability of FCFM from annual predictions to rainy-season predictions, and it is capable of extracting forecast factors from the periodicity of the rainy-reason runoffs. The model was employed to forecast the rainy-season hydrology of the Fengtan drainage area and satisfactory results were obtained.

关 键 词：中长期水文预报 模糊分析 预报因子 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]