GM(1,1)预测模型的两阶段优化方案及其在交通量预测中的应用  

Two-stage Optimization Scheme of Prediction Model and Its Application to Traffic Volume Prediction

作　　者：王宇[1] 董元胜[2] 刘小健[2] 左德华[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学,广州510642 [2]武汉理工大学,武汉430063

出　　处：《交通与计算机》2005年第2期41-43,共3页Computer and Communications

摘　　要：GM(1 ,1 )模型是灰色系统理论中的核心,已经得到广泛应用。文章提出了GM(1 ,1 )预测模型的两阶段优化方案,经比较,预测模型结果明显优于常规GM(1 ,1 )模型。将改进的GM(1 ,1 )模型用于交通量预测,预测效果较好。将等维递推处理技术应用于预测模型中。GM(1,1) model is the kernel of grey system theory, and it is applied widely in practice. This paper presents a two-stage optimization scheme of grey model. An improved GM(1,1) model can achieve much better results than the conventional one in forecast. This model works well in traffic volume prediction. Prediction accuracy and practicability can be further improved by the use of equal dimension recurrence in GM (1,1) model.

关 键 词：交通量预测 预测模型 优化方案 两阶段 GM(1.1)模型 灰色系统理论 预测效果 技术应用 预测精度 实用性 

分 类 号：U491.113[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] N941.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]