应用趋势面模型分析传染性疾病的地理分布趋势  

Analysis of geographical distribution of contagious diseases by trend-surface model

作　　者：裘炯良[1] 王旭波[2] 郑剑宁[1] 孙智夫 

机构地区：[1]宁波出入境检验检疫局卫生检疫处,浙江宁波315012 [2]丽水师范专科学校医学部,浙江丽水323000 [3]岱山疾病预防控制中心,浙江岱山316200

出　　处：《疾病控制杂志》2005年第2期131-133,共3页Chinese Journal of Disease Control and Prevention

摘　　要：目的　应用趋势面模型分析传染性疾病的地理分布趋势。方法　以多元回归分析理论为基础,构造趋势面回归数学模型,并依据模型方程绘制趋势面层次分析图。结果　获得对传染性疾病地理分布进行监测的定量方法。结论　该方法可用于分析疾病地理分布系统和局部变异情况,并可直观地表示不同地理位置疾病严重程度的变化状况。Objective To explore the application of the trend-surface model on geographical distribution of contagious diseases. Methods The trend-surface regressional model was based on multiple regression. Then trend-surface diagram was drawed according to the mathematical model. Results The quantitative method for monitoring geographical distribution of contagious diseases was obtained. Conclusions This method can be used for analyzing the geographical distribution of contagious diseases and demonstrating the variational trend of prevalence rate. It is a useful tool for exploring the pathogenesis of contagious diseases in geographical epidemiology.

关 键 词：传染病 趋势面模型 地理分布 地理流行病学 发病机制 

分 类 号：R188[医药卫生—流行病学]