北方冬小麦产量灾损风险类型的地理分布  

Geographic distribution of winter wheat yield loss risk and its classification in North China

作　　者：薛昌颖[1] 霍治国[1] 李世奎[1] 庄立伟[1] 王素艳[1] 侯婷婷[1] 叶彩玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2005年第4期620-625,共6页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家"十五"科技攻关资助项目 (2 0 0 4BA5 0 9B14 )

摘　　要：根据风险分析原理,利用北方各县市冬小麦近5 0年的实际单产资料和气象资料,进行冬小麦产量灾损风险评估和风险类型划分.以历年平均减产率、灾年减产率变异系数、不同减产率及其发生的概率和抗灾指数作为产量灾损风险评估指标.结果表明,产量灾损风险量化指标在北方冬麦区的分布具有明显的区域分异性和一定的连片性.在各风险评估指标的基础上构建了北方冬小麦产量灾损综合风险指数模式,提出了北方冬小麦产量灾损综合风险类型分类指标.根据分类指标将北方冬麦区划分为高、中、低3个风险类型,并进行了分类评述.分类结果表明,高风险类型主要分布在水土条件较差的陕、晋黄土高原地区和华北平原部分地区;中风险类型分布在华北平原东北部和河南南部以及太行山区;低风险类型主要分布在有灌溉条件和农业生产水平较好的华北平原的大部分地区和关中地区.Based on the theory of risk analysis and the nearest 50 years practical unit yield and meteorological data of North China winter wheat region,this paper discussed the assessment of winter wheat yield loss risk and its classification.The mean yield reduction rate of past years,variation coefficient of yield reduction rate in disaster years,different yield reduction rate and its occurrence probability,and disasters-resistance index were selected as the risk assessment indices,and the assessment showed that the distribution of these indices in the region had evident regional differentiation and certain continuity.The model of integrated risk index of North China winter wheat yield loss was established on the basis of the assessment,and the classification index of the risk was put forward.According to the classification result,North China winter wheat region was divided into three risk types,i.e.,high risk type mainly including the Loess Plateau areas of Shanxi and Shaanxi Provinces and the parts of North China Plain,medium risk type including the northeastern part of North China Plain,south Henan Province and Taihang Moutain region,and low risk type including most parts of North China Plain and the central Shanxi plain.

关 键 词：冬小麦 风险评估指标 产量灾损 风险类型 地理分布 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]